Forecasts and outlook tracker: official projections for Greece and Cyprus
Official 2026–2027 projections for Greece and Cyprus, attributed and dated, with the credit-rating review calendar. investmentradar.gr publishes no forecast of its own.
How to read this tracker#
Each figure here is a projection made by a named institution, on the date shown. investmentradar.gr makes no forecast of its own, and the tables do not average or rank the projections.
- Vintages differ. The forecasts were made at different times. Most differences between them reflect when each was made and what each assumes.
- Inflation measures differ. Some institutions forecast the harmonised index (HICP), others the national CPI.
- Outturns (actual data) are in the Greek macro snapshot and the Cyprus snapshot.
Greece: real GDP growth (%)#
| Institution (date) | 2026 | 2027 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ministry of Finance, 2027 draft budget (5 Oct 2026) | 2.0 | 2.3 | Draft Budgetary Plan 2027 (PDF) |
| Hellenic Fiscal Council (2 Oct 2026) | 1.9 | 2.0 | HFISC opinion (PDF, Greek) |
| Bank of Greece / Eurosystem (Sep 2026) | 2.0 | 1.9 | BoG note, 25 Sep 2026 (PDF) |
| IOBE, quarterly report 3/2026 (15 Oct 2026) | 1.8 | 1.9 | IOBE press summary (PDF, Greek) |
| IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct 2026) | 1.8 | 1.8 | WEO Table A2 (PDF) |
| European Commission, Spring 2026 (21 May 2026) | 1.8 | 1.6 | EC forecast for Greece |
For the 2025 outturn, ELSTAT's second estimate of 16 October 2026 kept Greek real GDP growth at 2.1% (ELSTAT, PDF).
IOBE, the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research, kept its 2026 estimate at 1.8% and trimmed 2027 to 1.9% from 2.0% in its previous report. It gives inflation as "around 4%" in 2026 and "around 3%" in 2027, so the table shows rounded figures.
The Hellenic Fiscal Council (HFISC) says the ministry's 2.3% for 2027 falls within the HFISC's own range of estimates but is above the forecasts of other institutions.
Greece: inflation and unemployment (%)#
| Institution | Inflation 2026 / 2027 | Unemployment 2026 / 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Ministry of Finance (draft budget) | HICP 3.6 / 2.4; CPI 3.8 / 2.6 | 8.4 / 7.9 |
| Bank of Greece / Eurosystem (Sep 2026) | HICP 3.5 / 2.7 | 8.1 / 7.7 |
| IOBE (15 Oct 2026) | CPI about 4 / about 3 | about 8.6 / 7.8 |
| European Commission (Spring 2026) | HICP 3.7 / 2.4 | 8.3 / 7.9 |
The Bank of Greece's Inflation Monitor of 12 October 2026 (PDF) repeats the September HICP path: 3.5% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. The Bank's Note on the Greek economy of 23 October 2026 (PDF) restates the same September projections and also shows 2028: real GDP growth of 2.0%, HICP inflation of 2.2%, unemployment of 7.6% and a current account deficit of 5.3% of GDP. Its Financial Stability Review of 22 October calls the outlook favourable but lists downside risks, among them Middle East tensions, energy prices and a possible sharp repricing of assets.
Fiscal targets in the draft budget#
The draft budget targets a primary surplus of 3.6% of GDP in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027. For reference, ELSTAT's outturn for 2025, published on 21 October 2026, is a general government surplus of 2.0% of GDP and debt of 145.4% of GDP; see the public finances note. It projects nominal GDP of about €262bn in 2026 and €274.6bn in 2027. The final budget is due in Parliament in November.
Cyprus: GDP, inflation, unemployment (%)#
| Institution (date) | GDP 2026 / 2027 | HICP 2026 / 2027 | Unemployment 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ministry of Finance, 2027 budget (12 Oct 2026) | 3.1 / 2.9 | 4.0 / 2.5 | 3.8 | gov.cy |
| Central Bank of Cyprus (Sep 2026) | 2.9 / 3.1 | 3.3 / 2.4 | 3.8 | CBC projections (PDF) |
| IMF WEO (Oct 2026) | 2.9 / 3.2 | n/a here | n/a here | WEO Table A2 (PDF) |
| European Commission, Spring 2026 | 2.3 / 2.7 | 3.6 / 2.2 | 4.2 | EC forecast for Cyprus |
Data revision after these forecasts. On 20 October 2026 CYSTAT revised Cypriot real GDP growth to 6.6% for 2024 (from 3.9%) and 6.0% for 2023 (from 3.6%), and estimated 2025 at 4.8% (CYSTAT). All Cyprus projections in the table were published before that revision. Their GDP levels and ratios to GDP may be restated in later editions. Details are in the Cyprus snapshot.
The Cyprus Ministry of Finance projects:
- General government surplus: 2.7% of GDP in 2026, rising to 3.9% in 2027.
- Public debt: 48.9% of GDP in 2026, 46.6% in 2027 and 38.4% in 2029.
- Parliamentary review: the budget committee's review is scheduled to run until 16 November 2026.
Credit ratings calendar: Greece#
The table follows the Public Debt Management Agency's rating page, checked on 24 October 2026, updated for S&P's decision of 23 October, which the PDMA page did not yet show.
| Agency | Rating / outlook | Last action | Next scheduled date |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global | BBB / stable (affirmed) | 23 Oct 2026 (S&P; see the S&P note) | 2027, date to be confirmed |
| Fitch | BBB / stable | 8 May 2026 | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Moody's | Baa3 / positive | 18 Sep 2026 | Mar 2027 |
| Scope | BBB+ / stable (upgrade) | 18 Sep 2026 | Mar 2027 |
| Morningstar DBRS | BBB / positive | 4 Sep 2026 | 2027, date to be confirmed |
| R&I | BBB / positive | 17 Aug 2026 | 2027, date to be confirmed |
For Cyprus, the Ministry of Finance said on 12 October 2026 that all four major agencies rate the country in the A category, three of them with a positive outlook. We will add a full Cyprus calendar once it is checked against the agencies' own pages.
A scheduled date is a date on which an agency may publish. It does not mean the rating will change.
S&P, 23 October 2026. S&P Global Ratings affirmed Greece at BBB/A-2 with a stable outlook. In the same report it projects a 2026 general government surplus of 0.8% of GDP (primary surplus 3.8%), an average primary surplus of 3.2% over 2027–2029, net government debt of 123% of GDP at end-2026 falling to 107% by end-2029, and average real growth of 2.1% over 2027–2029. These are S&P's estimates; details are in the S&P note. Fitch is next, on 6 November 2026.
Related#
- S&P affirms Greece at BBB, 23 Oct 2026
- Euronext Athens large caps: credit ratings and attributed analyst target prices
- Deals and transactions tracker
- Tax bill in consultation, October 2026
- Greek public finances: October 2026 EDP data
- Business and investment climate
Sources#
- Greek Ministry of Finance: Draft Budgetary Plan 2027 (PDF)
- Hellenic Fiscal Council: opinion on the 2027 draft budget (PDF, Greek)
- Bank of Greece: Note on the Greek economy, 25 Sep 2026 (PDF)
- IOBE: quarterly report on the Greek economy 3/2026, press summary, 15 Oct 2026 (PDF, Greek)
- ELSTAT: Fiscal data 2022–2025, 2nd EDP notification, 21 Oct 2026 (PDF)
- Bank of Greece: Inflation Monitor, Oct 2026 (PDF)
- IMF: World Economic Outlook, Oct 2026, Table A2 (PDF)
- European Commission: economic forecast for Greece
- European Commission: economic forecast for Cyprus
- Cyprus Ministry of Finance: 2027 budget presentation (gov.cy)
- Central Bank of Cyprus: macroeconomic projections, Sep 2026 (PDF)
- PDMA: Greece credit ratings
- S&P Global Ratings: regulatory press releases (Greece affirmed at 'BBB/A-2', 23 Oct 2026)