S&P affirms Greece at BBB with a stable outlook (23 October 2026)
S&P Global Ratings kept Greece at BBB/A-2 with a stable outlook on 23 October 2026, and now projects a 2026 primary surplus of 3.8% of GDP.
At a glance#
| Item | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Action | Long- and short-term foreign and local currency ratings affirmed at BBB/A-2 | S&P Global Ratings, 23 Oct 2026 |
| Outlook | Stable (unchanged) | Same |
| Previous action | BBB / stable, 24 Apr 2026 | PDMA ratings page |
| Transfer and convertibility assessment | AAA | S&P ratings list, 23 Oct 2026 |
| Next agency on the calendar | Fitch, 6 Nov 2026 (BBB / stable) | PDMA |
S&P published the decision on the evening of Friday 23 October 2026, after European markets closed. The research update is listed on S&P's regulatory press-release page; the full text is behind registration, and a copy was published by Parapolitika (PDF). English-language coverage: To Vima, 23 Oct 2026.
Why S&P kept the rating where it is#
S&P says the stable outlook balances solid economic and fiscal performance against high stocks of external and government debt. Its main points, in its own terms:
- Budget running ahead of target. State budget data to August show revenue about €1.1bn ahead of target, helped by VAT on tourism spending, lower unemployment and tax-compliance measures such as the digital labour card.
- External position. External imbalances are elevated, and S&P expects the rise in energy prices to widen them further. It says euro-area membership and EU fiscal rules protect against a balance-of-payments shock.
- Growth. Activity has held up through the energy shock linked to the Middle East war, with tourism and investment, including the final stage of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), driving it.
- Politics. Elections are due by July 2027. S&P notes that the governing party could lose its absolute majority, but it sees cross-party consensus on sustainable public finances.
S&P's projections (attributed, not ours)#
These are S&P's estimates as of 23 October 2026. They are not official targets and not a forecast by investmentradar.gr.
| Measure | S&P projection |
|---|---|
| General government balance, 2026 | Surplus of 0.8% of GDP (primary surplus 3.8%) |
| Government's original 2026 target, as cited by S&P | Deficit of 0.1% of GDP (primary surplus 2.8%) |
| Headline balance, 2027–2029 average | Surplus of 0.2% of GDP (primary surplus 3.2%) |
| Net general government debt | 123% of GDP at end-2026, falling to 107% by end-2029 |
| Real GDP growth, 2027–2029 average | 2.1% |
| GDP per capita, 2029 | $35,100, about 55% of the EU average (47% in 2019) |
For comparison, the Ministry of Finance's 2027 draft budget targets a primary surplus of 3.6% of GDP for 2026 and 3.3% for 2027, and ELSTAT's outturn for 2025 is a general government surplus of 2.0% of GDP with gross debt of 145.4% of GDP. S&P's debt figure is net of liquid assets, so it is not comparable with ELSTAT's gross (Maastricht) debt. All official projections sit side by side in the forecasts tracker; the fiscal outturn is in the public finances note.
What S&P says could change the rating#
- Upgrade: a material and sustained improvement in external imbalances, for example less reliance on imports, or a material fall in external debt, much of which is public.
- Downgrade: a marked deterioration in budgetary performance.
Where Greece stands across the agencies#
After this decision, S&P, Fitch, DBRS and R&I rate Greece BBB, Scope rates it BBB+, and Moody's Baa3. Moody's, DBRS and R&I have positive outlooks; S&P, Fitch and Scope have stable ones, according to the PDMA. The PDMA page had not yet been updated for the S&P review when checked on 24 October 2026.
Context for markets#
The decision came after a weak session in Athens. The Athex Composite closed at 2,530.46 on 23 October, down 2.22% on the day, with bank shares leading the fall (Euronext Athens daily official list, PDF). We do not comment on how ratings affect prices. How the credit ratings of the largest Euronext Athens companies compare with the sovereign benchmark — alongside attributed analyst target prices — is set out in Euronext Athens large caps: credit ratings and analyst target prices. Listings and results dates are in the capital markets note, and the wider picture is in the Greek macro snapshot.
Sources#
- S&P Global Ratings: regulatory press releases (Greece affirmed at 'BBB/A-2'; outlook stable, 23 Oct 2026)
- Copy of S&P's research update, via Parapolitika (PDF)
- Public Debt Management Agency: Greece credit ratings
- Greek Ministry of Finance: Draft Budgetary Plan 2027 (PDF)
- ELSTAT: Fiscal data 2022–2025, 2nd EDP notification, 21 Oct 2026 (PDF)
- Euronext Athens: daily official list, 23 Oct 2026 (PDF)
- To Vima: S&P keeps Greece at BBB, 23 Oct 2026