Greek public finances: 2025 surplus revised to 2.0% of GDP, debt 145.4% (October 2026 EDP data)
ELSTAT now puts Greece's 2025 general government surplus at 2.0% of GDP and public debt at 145.4%, both better than its April estimate.
Key facts#
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| General government balance | +€4.935bn (+2.0% of GDP) | 2025 | ELSTAT, 21 Oct 2026 (PDF) |
| General government primary balance | +€12.777bn (+5.1% of GDP) | 2025 | ELSTAT, same release |
| General government debt | €362.995bn (145.4% of GDP) | End-2025 | ELSTAT, same release |
| Nominal GDP used for the ratios | €249.726bn | 2025 | ELSTAT, same release |
| Quarterly general government balance | +€3.116bn (+4.8% of quarterly GDP) | Q2 2026 (provisional) | ELSTAT, 21 Oct 2026 (PDF) |
| General government debt | €358.647bn (140.8% of GDP) | End-Q2 2026 | ELSTAT, same release |
What was published#
On 21 October 2026 the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) released two sets of fiscal data:
- The second Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) notification of 2026. These are the annual figures for 2022–2025 that Greece sends to Eurostat twice a year. They are compiled under the ESA 2010 accounting rules (ELSTAT release, PDF).
- Quarterly non-financial accounts of general government for Q2 2026. These give revenue, spending and the debt stock at the end of June 2026 (ELSTAT release, PDF).
General government covers central government, local authorities and social security funds. The figures are on an accruals basis. This is a different measure from the monthly state budget execution data in the macro snapshot, which are on a modified cash basis and cover the state budget only.
2025: a larger surplus and lower debt than in April#
ELSTAT estimates the 2025 general government balance at a surplus of €4.935 billion, or 2.0% of GDP. That compares with a surplus of 1.4% of GDP in 2024 and deficits of 1.5% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2022.
Gross consolidated debt stood at €362.995 billion at the end of 2025, or 145.4% of GDP. The ratio was 153.5% in 2024, 164.0% in 2023 and 177.8% in 2022. In euro terms, debt fell by about €2.0 billion during 2025.
Compared with the April 2026 notification, the October data show:
| 2025 | April 2026 notification | October 2026 notification | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance, % of GDP | +1.7 | +2.0 | +0.3 points |
| Debt, % of GDP | 146.1 | 145.4 | −0.7 points |
ELSTAT attributes the revisions mainly to updated source data, methodological changes and the classification of some specific transactions. The 2024 debt ratio was also revised down, from 154.2% to 153.5%. The new GDP figures from ELSTAT's annual national accounts of 16 October 2026 are used as the denominator.
Other 2025 figures in the release:
- Revenue: €124.3 billion, 49.8% of GDP.
- Expenditure: €119.3 billion, 47.8% of GDP.
- Public investment (gross fixed capital formation): €11.9 billion, up from €10.1 billion in 2024.
- Interest: €7.8 billion, down from €8.2 billion in 2024.
- Support to financial institutions: a net cost of €667 million (0.27% of GDP) to the balance.
First half of 2026#
The quarterly accounts show:
- Q2 2026 balance: a surplus of €3.116 billion, after a deficit of €1.403 billion in Q1 2026.
- Q2 primary surplus: €5.228 billion.
- Total revenue in Q2 2026: €33.9 billion, against €31.6 billion in Q2 2025.
- Debt at the end of June 2026: €358.647 billion, or 140.8% of GDP, down from €362.995 billion at the end of 2025. The Bank of Greece's Note on the Greek economy of 23 October 2026 (PDF) shows the same €358.647 billion stock as 136.1% of GDP. The two ratios use different GDP figures: dividing by each ratio implies about €254.7 billion for ELSTAT's and about €263.5 billion for the Bank's (our arithmetic). The Bank's figure is close to the roughly €262 billion of nominal GDP the draft budget projects for 2026. The debt amount itself is the same in both, so we keep ELSTAT's ratio as the reference.
Quarterly balances are seasonal, so a single quarter should not be read as an annual rate. Eurostat's seasonally adjusted series puts Greece's Q2 2026 surplus at 2.2% of GDP, after 1.8% in Q1, against a euro-area deficit of 3.3% (Eurostat, 21 Oct 2026). For 2025, Eurostat lists five EU member states with a surplus: Cyprus (+3.6%, see the Cyprus snapshot), Denmark (+2.9%), Greece (+2.0%), Ireland (+1.8%) and Portugal (+0.7%) (Eurostat, 21 Oct 2026). The 2026 annual target is in the 2027 draft budget, which targets a primary surplus of 3.6% of GDP. The annual outturn for 2026 will be in the April 2027 EDP notification.
Why it matters for investors#
- Sovereign ratings. These are the figures rating agencies use. On 23 October 2026 S&P Global Ratings affirmed Greece at BBB/A-2 with a stable outlook and projected a 2026 primary surplus of 3.8% of GDP, against the draft budget's 3.6% target (S&P note). Fitch's review is scheduled for 6 November 2026, according to the Public Debt Management Agency. A scheduled date does not mean a rating will change.
- Bond supply. Debt securities outstanding rose to €100.7 billion at the end of Q2 2026, while loans, mostly official-sector, fell to €250.4 billion.
- Fiscal room. The surplus is the backdrop for the tax cuts in the bill now in public consultation.
We make no forecast of our own. Official projections are listed, with dates, in the forecasts tracker.
Sources#
- ELSTAT: Fiscal data 2022–2025, 2nd EDP notification, 21 Oct 2026 (PDF)
- ELSTAT: Quarterly non-financial accounts of general government, Q2 2026, 21 Oct 2026 (PDF)
- ELSTAT: Annual national accounts 2025, 2nd estimate, 16 Oct 2026 (PDF)
- Greek Ministry of Finance: Draft Budgetary Plan 2027 (PDF)
- Eurostat: 2025 government deficit and debt in the EU, 21 Oct 2026
- Eurostat: quarterly government deficit, Q2 2026, 21 Oct 2026
- PDMA: Greece credit ratings